Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Ontario—Autumn 2018

This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

The Ontario economy will expand in the 2.0 per cent range over the near term.

Weaker growth in household spending is a major factor behind the more subdued outlook.

Pending approval in the U.S. Congress, the CUSMA trade agreement should benefit Ontario’s auto sector.

Premier Ford’s promised tax cuts will make it difficult for the province to balance the books unless more spending cuts are implemented.

The elimination of the cap-and-trade program should lower gasoline and natural gas prices but will also reduce government revenue.