Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Ontario—Spring 2019

This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

Real GDP is expected to increase by 1.4 per cent in 2019, down from 2.4 per cent in 2018.

Adverse developments in housing, trade, and investment are the main factors behind the weaker growth over the near term.

The downturn in Toronto’s housing markets has likely bottomed out, although housing affordability will continue to be a problem.

Over the medium term, the auto sector will benefit from Toyota’s decision to expand production of its Lexus model.

Government spending will be constrained as the province enters a period of spending cuts and weaker economic growth.

Export growth will be constrained by tumbling U.S. vehicle sales despite the weak value of the loonie.