This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2009
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2009
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Canada is in the midst of recession. A decline in commodity prices and exports, coupled with soft domestic demand, will lead to a 1.7 per cent drop in real GDP in 2009.
- Despite major construction projects, Newfoundland and Labrador’s real GDP growth will nosedive this year as falling productive capacity in the offshore petroleum industry limits growth prospects going forward.
- The economic focus has shifted to the Atlantic region where, for the first time in more than 25 years, net interprovincial migration will be positive.
- In Quebec, the current recession will not be as devastating as were the major downturns of the early 1980s and 1990–91.
- Massive government fiscal stimulus will not be enough to pull Ontario out of the recession brought on by the crash in the auto industry and other important sectors.
- Manitoba will manage to remain in positive territory and will be one of the few provinces to post a budgetary fiscal surplus in 2009–10.
- The outlook for Saskatchewan has been downgraded. A larger-than-expected drop in global fertilizer demand has led to significant cutbacks in potash production in the first half of the year.
- The Alberta and British Columbia economies are suffering. The construction boom is a thing of the past in the two western-most provinces, and a recovery is not in the cards until next year.
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