Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2003

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

The Canadian economy is forecast to continue its winning ways in 2003.At 3.2 per cent this year,growth will match the 2002 pace,exceeding expectations for the U.S.economy and,for that matter,every other large economy on the planet.Moreover,growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5 per cent in 2004,although at that point it should be neck-and-neck with the rebounding U.S.economy.

• High oil and gas prices will vault Alberta ahead of all other provinces in 2003 and 2004.
• Rising oil production will help Newfoundland and Labrador achieve 4.7 per cent growth in 2003.
• Near-term growth in Quebec and Ontario will remain solid.
• Construction projects will boost growth in New Brunswick to third place among the provinces this year.
• Poor prospects for agricultural output will hold back growth in Saskatchewan in 2003.
• Tight fiscal policy will be a drag on the British Columbia economy in the near term.