Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2002

This annual economic forecast presents the long-term outlook for Canada’s provinces, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, and labour market conditions. Also included is a forecast for Canadian economic indicators and a comparison of GDP by province and industry.

Document Highlights 

• The national economy is expected to experience average growth of 2.7 per cent over the 2001-20 period.
• At 3.2 per cent, growth will be strongest in Alberta, as the energy sector benefits from rising oil prices, an immense non-conventional oil supply and better extraction technology.
• Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, which were partic-ularly affected by the U.S. slowdown, will post strong growth in 2003 and 2004 as the U.S. economy rebounds.
• Declining population will make Newfoundland and Labrador the slowest growing province over the 2001-20 period.
• The average annual growth rate will be limited to 2.1 per cent in the Maritime and Prairie provinces, mainly because of weak demographic conditions.