This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2011
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2011
Provincial Economic Analysis
$2,050.00
- This long-term outlook extends to the year 2030, by which time almost all the baby boomers will have exited the labour market. A consistent slowing in labour force growth means that Canada’s economic growth will ease steadily over the forecast period, slowing to an annual pace of 1.6 per cent in the final five years.
- Alberta and Saskatchewan will occupy the two top spots over the long term. Not surprisingly, it will be the natural resource-oriented economies that surge ahead over the long term, as emerging countries require increasingly large quantities of primary commodities—in particular, petroleum and mineral-related products.
- The long-term prospects are strong for Ontario. Robust international migration will benefit the province, especially the service sector.
- Over the long term, real GDP growth will average 2 per cent in British Columbia and 1.6 per cent in Prince Edward Island, as the two provinces become preferred retirement havens for baby boomers.
- A declining population and the depletion of oil reserves will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador over the next two decades.
- Energy megaprojects will boost the New Brunswick economy over the next decade. However, the province’s population will start to decline in 2025. Nova Scotia will also see its population begin to shrink at the same time, and will face the weakest average compound real GDP growth of all provinces over the next 20 years.
- Quebec’s long-term prospects are dampened by an older population and a shrinking working-age population. Despite a rising trend in the number of births in the last few years, the aging of the population will be felt much sooner in Quebec than elsewhere.
- More favourable immigration will help population growth remain steady in Manitoba over the forecast period.
Customers Who Downloaded This Also Liked
5 min read
15 min read
16 min read
15 min read
Require an accessible version of this research?
Upon request, Signal49 Research offers accessible versions of research. Please contact us to request your accessible version.
Learn more about our accessibility policies.
Effective January 26, 2026, AERIC Inc./Signal49 Research discontinued use of ‘The Conference Board of Canada’ name, logo and branding, which had been used by AERIC Inc./Signal49 Research under license from The Conference Board, Inc. The Conference Board, Inc. and its licensees, which are not affiliated with Signal49 Research, own all right, title and interest in THE CONFERENCE BOARD name and trademarks in Canada and have the exclusive right to their use in Canada since January 26, 2026.
