This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2013
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2013
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- While the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is increasing in Canada, it is rising at a much faster pace in Atlantic Canada and Quebec than in other regions. Between the 2006 and 2011 censuses, the proportion of people aged over 65 did not increase in the Prairies and even dropped in Saskatchewan. However, it grew elsewhere in the country.
- This long-term outlook extends to the year 2035, by which time the vast majority of baby boomers will have exited the labour market. A consistent slowing in labour force growth means that Canada’s economic growth will ease steadily over the forecast period, slowing to an annual pace of 1.8 per cent in the final five years.
- Alberta, Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba will lead in economic growth over the long term. Steady growth in global demand for energy and other primary commodities will provide support for Alberta’s and Saskatchewan’s economies and workforce. Manitoba’s long-term outlook will benefit from the high levels of international migration.
- Ontario’s near-term challenges, especially on the fiscal side, are not indicative of its long-term economic outlook. Rising international migration will benefit the province, especially the services sector.
- Over the long term, real GDP growth will average 1.9 per cent in British Columbia and 1.4 per cent in Prince Edward Island, as the two provinces become preferred retirement havens for baby boomers.
- The depletion of oil reserves and fewer mega energy projects will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador, mainly from 2016 onward as the population starts to decline.
- Population will peak early in the next decade in New Brunswick, and real GDP growth will be modest over the long term. In Nova Scotia, the $25-billion contract won by Irving Shipbuilding to build 21 combat ships for the Royal Canadian Navy will help keep the provincial economy growing over the next three decades. There is upside potential for Nova Scotia as efforts have been made to revive interest in developing the energy potential of the Scotian Shelf.
- Quebec’s long-term prospects are dampened by its demography. The effects of an aging population will be felt much sooner in Quebec than elsewhere.
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