This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast 2014
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast 2014
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- The proportion of the population aged 65 and over will increase faster than the national average in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia over the next two decades. At just slightly more than 19 per cent, Alberta and Saskatchewan will have the lowest proportion of people aged 65 and over among all provinces in 2035.
- By 2035, the youngest of the baby boomers will be 70, and most will have left the labour force. A steady drop in labour force growth means that Canada’s economic growth will also ease over the next two decades, falling to an annual pace of less than 2 per cent in the final five years of the forecast.
- Economic growth in Ontario and Alberta will surpass the national average over the forecast, while the B.C. economy will advance at the national average. Saskatchewan and Manitoba will average growth of close to 2 per cent.
- Ontario’s mediocre economic performance since the end of the global recession is not indicative of its long-term economic potential. Rising international migration will help bolster real GDP growth in the province, especially in the services sector.
- Over the long term, the strongest economic performer in the Atlantic region will be Prince Edward Island, where real GDP growth will average 1.4 per cent as the province becomes a preferred retirement haven for baby boomers.
- Newfoundland and Labrador will benefit from further expansion of the offshore oil industry over the next decade. After that, real GDP will advance slowly as depletion of reserves at existing oil-producing fields squeezes growth.
- The long-term economic prospects are modest for New Brunswick, where the population is expected to decline. In Nova Scotia, the $25-billion contract to build 21 combat ships for the Royal Canadian Navy will provide benefits to several key industries over the forecast period.
- Offshore oil production could emerge as an economic driver in Quebec. Still, population aging will cap potential output growth at less than 2 per cent in the long term.
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