What Might Canada’s Future Exports Look Like?

Canada depends on trade to generate economic growth. Unfortunately, the future of the world economy is uncertain. Ongoing economic difficulties among Canada’s major trading partners will affect exchange rate movements, real GDP growth, and, in turn, Canada’s exports. This study examines the long-term growth path for Canadian exports to our major trading partners: the United States, the United Kingdom, the eurozone, Japan, China, India, Mexico, and Brazil. The authors provide long-term forecasts of exports by major trading partner to 2025. They also examine the sensitivity of their forecasts to changes in real GDP growth or exchange rates. They conclude that, while Canada’s share of both merchandise and service exports to the U.S. will decline by 2025, the U.S. will remain Canada’s largest export market by a considerable margin. The share of merchandise exports from Canada to developing countries will increase if solid economic growth in these countries continues.