In-Depth Analysis from Signal49’s Economics Team

Federal Budget 2026: Betting that Deficits Will Pay Off in the Future

Budget 2026 doubles down on getting Canada built, introducing major incentives for private investment and significant spending on housing and infrastructure. While this direction is encouraging, its success will depend on whether these measures generate enough economic growth to justify persistently large deficits.

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Labour Markets Still Searching for Momentum

Employment was largely unchanged in October, following consecutive declines in August (-42,000) and September (-68,000). The unemployment rate edged up 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 per cent, while the employment…

Federal Budget 2026: Betting that Deficits will Payoff in the Future

Français Budget 2026 is the next step in the government’s plan to boost capital investment in exchange for steep deficits. Key findings on the 2026 federal budget Despite a revenue…
Series:Trade

Commodity Strength Offsets Broader Export Weakness

Canada’s merchandise exports rose 0.2 per cent in September. Meanwhile, imports were down 0.3 per cent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade surplus widened from $5.0 billion in August to…

Ontario Fall Economic Statement 2026: A Longer Road to Balance, a Bigger Bet on Investment

Ontario’s fall economic statement revealed a steeper-than-expected deficit for fiscal year 2026-27. The province’s shortfall is now projected at $16.9 billion, up from the $13.8 billion forecast in Budget 2026….

AI on the Horizon: October 2026

The budget bankrolling the AI for All strategy Canada’s latest AI news on the economy, society, and policy. In this issue of AI on the Horizon, we look ahead to…

GDP Flat Again in August

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged in August, for the second consecutive month, as 11 of the 20 industrial sectors saw a decline or no growth. The services-producing…

Bank of Canada Raises Overnight Rate

The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 per cent, the Bank Rate to 2.75 per cent, and the deposit rate to 2.45 per…

Measuring Municipalities’ Absorptive Capacity—October 2026

Measuring Immigration’s Impact on Municipalities: The Absorptive Capacity Index Canadian municipalities differ in their capacity to successfully integrate immigrant populations. Identical levels of immigration can generate positive outcomes in some…

Inflation Stays Elevated in September, but Core Measures Remain Contained

In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1 per cent year-over-year (y/y), which was higher than August’s 3.0 per cent increase. Gasoline prices rose by 6.1 per cent…

Neurodivergent Work-Integrated Learning—October 2026

Fostering Neurodivergent Talent: Participation, Barriers, and Experiences in Work-Integrated Learning This research examines neurodivergent learners’ experiences with work-integrated learning programs: learners’ awareness of programs and perceived value; participation rates; neurodivergence…

Labour Markets Failing to Gain Momentum Once Again

Employment declined by 68,000 (-0.3 per cent) in September, following a 42,000 decline in August. The labour force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 64.8 per cent, while…
Series:Trade

A Strong Trade Month, but Clouds are Gathering

Canada’s merchandise exports rose 2.5 per cent in August. Meanwhile, imports were down 2.0 per cent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade surplus widened from $787 million in July to…

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