Provincial Fiscal Outlook
Deficits to Gradually Narrow
Provincial governments across Canada are facing fiscal challenges. Most are struggling to balance their books amid spending pressures, as pandemic-related interest costs linger, and a rising number of seniors is increasing demand for healthcare. Housing affordability, while improving, also remains a spending priority for many governments.
July 29, 2025 • 20-min read
Page updated: July 29, 2025
About the Series
The Provincial Fiscal Outlook leverages Signal49 Research’s robust macroeconomic models to provide an independent forecast of each province’s finances, including projections for revenue, spending, debt, and other key financial indicators. Intended primarily for provincial finance ministries, this annual report delivers data and insights to help refine budget planning and improve long-term fiscal sustainability.
For each province, the report includes:
- downloadable data—a table of key indicators that subscribers can download for their own use;
- fiscal projections—a trusted, independent outlook on revenues, expenditures, and debt levels;
- written analysis—a detailed exploration of the outlook’s key findings and economic themes that could impact each provincial forecast;
- interactive charts—customizable charts and data to help subscribers identify trends relevant to their work.
The Provincial Fiscal Outlook has been produced since July 2025.
Methodology
The Provincial Fiscal Outlook provides a detailed five-year forecast for each province’s finances. It comprises key revenue and expenditure categories, including debt and budgetary balances. Our historical database is built with publicly available data from provincial finance ministries. We then leverage our econometric fiscal models of provincial finances alongside our latest macroeconomic assumptions for provincial economies. The forecast assumes stable policy settings, except for announced changes that have been or are very likely to be passed by provincial legislatures. Assumptions regarding any significant changes to policy are presented in the written portion of the outlook.
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Questions?
If you have any questions about the Provincial Fiscal Outlook, or about becoming a subscriber, please contact us.