Provincial 20-year Outlook
Pulse of Change
The long-term economic growth potential of Canada’s provinces is guided by the availability and productivity of labour and capital. These factors form the foundation of long-term economic performance, which is further shaped by trade dynamics. Canada’s small, open economy means international and interprovincial trade of goods and services plays an important role in driving economic growth.
March 17, 2025 • 15-min read
Page updated: April 8, 2025
Provincial 20-year Outlooks
British Columbia
Immigration Necessary to Support Older Population and Government Debt
April 8, 2025 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Newfoundland and Labrador
Demographics, Energy Transition Strain Economy
March 18, 2025 • 11-min read
Forthcoming
Nova Scotia
Modest Growth Expected but Challenges Remain Over Long-Term
March 17, 2025 • 15-min read
Forthcoming
Prince Edward Island
International Migration to Become Ever More Important
March 26, 2025 • 16-min read
Forthcoming
Saskatchewan
Sustained Growth Driven by Key Resource Sectors
March 19, 2025 • 11-min read
Forthcoming
2024 Edition
Economic Reboot
The underlying growth potential of Canada’s economy will come from three main sources: the number of people added to the population and more particularly the workforce; the amount and mix of capital used in production processes and the technological improvements adopted along the way; and outside global forces that affect trade flows and spending patterns.
February 14, 2024 • 8-min read
British Columbia
Long-Term Growth Dampened by Older Population
April 18, 2024 • 9-min read
Forthcoming
Manitoba
Diversification and Demographics Set to Drive Growth
March 19, 2024 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
Newfoundland and Labrador
Demographic Ebb Tide and Industry Weakness
March 21, 2024 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
Nova Scotia
Dark Clouds in the Distance but Bright Spots Remain
April 8, 2024 • 11-min read
Forthcoming
Ontario
Economic Outlook Steady Amid Challenges and Opportunities
March 19, 2024 • 11-min read
Forthcoming
Saskatchewan
The Path to Prosperity Involves Unlocking Resource Potential
March 26, 2024 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
About the Series
Dive into the long-term economic outlook for Canada’s provinces and examine structural shifts
The annual Provincial 20-Year Outlook explores the major drivers and constraints impacting the long-term growth trajectory of Canada’s provinces. The report covers the following core economic components: demographics and labour markets, government, households and spending, investment, and trade and industry. However, a greater emphasis is placed on the drivers of long-term growth, notably demographic structural changes, such as an aging population and immigration, structural barriers to growth, and large-project investment spending that takes more than five years for the full effects to be felt.
The Outlook is created by a team of economists based on detailed analysis of local and regional conditions combined with Signal49 Research’s proprietary macroeconometric model of the provincial economies.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- economic analysis and insights: a concise overview of key long-term trends, constraints, and growth expectations;
- downloadable forecast data on the following key economic indicators: GDP,CPI, implicit price deflators, household income and savings, labour force, employment, retail sales, housing starts, population, and immigration and migration for each of the next 20 years;
- a dashboard displaying key charts and leading economic indicator data in a format that lets you assess important areas of the economy, including historical data for context, and easily compare provinces.
The Provincial 20-year Outlook is available online from February 2001 onwards.
Methodology
This online experience examines the economic outlook for the provinces. The outlook is based on detailed analysis of local and regional conditions, combined with Signal49 Research’s proprietary macroeconometric model of the provincial economies. Updated quarterly, the model contains almost 3,000 variables and equations structured uniquely to each of the provinces. Inputs and outputs include 30 expenditure components of gross domestic product, the interaction of 25 industry sectors, detailed population and labour force conditions by age group, interprovincial trade, and pricing and investment activity.
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Questions?
If you have any questions about the Provincial 20-year Outlook, or about becoming a subscriber, please contact us.