Ontario’s Five-Year Outlook—July 2026

Ontario’s Five-Year Outlook—July 2026

Provincial Economic Analysis
17 min read

Author: Christopher Heschl

$705.00

This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, and labour market conditions.

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Ontario in a Trade Fog

After growing by 1.3 per cent in 2025, Ontario’s economy is expected to grow by 0.7 per cent this year as global economic headwinds undermine growth prospects.

Will tariff relief be forthcoming in 2027, and will the outlook improve over the rest of the forecast? Will households continue to express caution with their discretionary spending? What is expected for labour force growth and job gains? What is the outlook for residential investment over the medium term? What about non-residential investment? And will Ontario’s deficit deepen this year amid shaky economic conditions?

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