Metropolitan Housing Starts
Little Change in Expectations This Month
Key Findings
- There are nine census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations this month, one fewer than last month. These are the CMAs in the up-up quadrant.
- All of the Quebec CMAs have positive short-term expectations, but negative long-term expectations.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in housing starts in December were Saint John, Moncton, Hamilton, Saguenay, and Regina.
- Thunder Bay had the largest year-over-year percentage decline in starts last month.
Expectations quadrant
*While residential permit data from the past six months suggest that starts will rise in Abbotsford–Mission in the short term, recent flooding in the area may make this impossible.
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the up–up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the down–down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
All of Quebec’s CMAs should see housing starts increase in the short term.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Expectations | ||||||||
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | Dec. 2020 | Short-term* | Long-term** | |||
| St. John’s | 507 | 514 | 537 | 480 | + | + | ||
| Halifax | 4,407 | 4,247 | 3,797 | 3,937 | + | – | ||
| Saint John | 35 | 641 | 538 | 336 | + | – | ||
| Moncton | 528 | 2,435 | 2,544 | 4,326 | + | – | ||
| Québec CMA | 3,101 | 7,508 | 6,647 | 5,397 | + | – | ||
| Montréal | 18,818 | 31,696 | 31,589 | 33,872 | + | – | ||
| Trois-Rivières | 600 | 687 | 786 | 554 | + | – | ||
| Saguenay | 287 | 608 | 752 | 1,015 | + | – | ||
| Sherbrooke | 2,363 | 2,431 | 2,982 | 1,745 | + | – | ||
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 10,133 | 14,880 | 13,545 | 12,794 | – | – | ||
| Kingston | 735 | 1,272 | 945 | 695 | + | + | ||
| Greater Sudbury | 178 | 303 | 364 | 202 | + | + | ||
| Thunder Bay | 123 | 128 | 156 | 20 | – | + | ||
| Oshawa | 3,372 | 3,748 | 2,823 | 1,987 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 21,697 | 40,797 | 33,944 | 31,048 | + | + | ||
| Hamilton | 882 | 4,354 | 4,319 | 4,254 | – | + | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 2,889 | 2,665 | 2,904 | 2,617 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 7,128 | 3,543 | 2,910 | 3,688 | + | + | ||
| London | 2,603 | 5,277 | 7,178 | 2,881 | + | – | ||
| Windsor | 1,211 | 1,929 | 2,110 | 1,394 | + | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 3,696 | 5,215 | 6,450 | 4,078 | + | + | ||
| Regina | 330 | 909 | 1,014 | 1,098 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 1,763 | 2,305 | 1,601 | 1,818 | + | + | ||
| Calgary | 25,544 | 10,363 | 10,931 | 10,002 | – | + | ||
| Edmonton | 9,021 | 12,761 | 15,337 | 16,867 | + | + | ||
| Vancouver | 27,642 | 25,009 | 24,863 | 26,187 | – | – | ||
| Victoria | 3,231 | 3,297 | 3,506 | 4,330 | – | – | ||
| Abbotsford–Mission | 2,506 | 882 | 767 | 496 | + | – | ||
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
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About the Metropolitan Housing Starts
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.