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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot

Resale Markets Continue to Dial Back—Is Homebuyer Fatigue Setting In?

June 21, 2021

Key Findings

  • Canada’s existing housing markets saw further easing in May. Both sales and listings pulled back in most areas and price growth decelerated. Falling sales may reflect some buyers’ decision to wait for calmer markets, although falling listings also constrain the supply of available homes. Low interest rates remain a key underpinning.
  • Sales fell in 28 of our 30 areas during May, including 21 places where losses exceeded 5 per cent. Transactions nonetheless remained above their year-earlier levels in all 30 markets, partly due to last year’s COVID-19 restrictions on viewing resale homes. Listings also saw widespread declines; they were off in 23 of 30 markets in May and at least 5 per cent lower in 20 areas. Listings nonetheless exceeded year-earlier levels in 29 of 30 markets.
  • May’s ongoing rebalancing was shown by an easing sales-to-listings ratio in 16 jurisdictions and decelerating price growth, also in 16 areas. Most markets continued to be very tight: 23 of our 30 were in sellers’ territory, and prices were up at least 20 per cent year-over-year in 20 areas.
  • May sales fell in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal. This was Montréal’s fourth sales decline in the past five months; volumes peaked last September. While sales in Toronto and Vancouver dipped for the second straight month, their transactions remained elevated. Calgary’s easing comes off a record high in April.
  • Listings were little changed in Vancouver during May, but fell in Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal. Still, all four cities’ listings were well above pandemic-depressed levels a year earlier. Vancouver and Calgary became balanced markets, but Toronto and Montréal remained in a sellers’ state.
  • Prices fell in Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal last month, but rose in Toronto. Year-over-year price gains in May were near 30 per cent in Toronto and Montréal, closer to 20 per cent in Calgary, and about 14 per cent in Vancouver.
See available data

Recent Market Performance

Sales
Falling		 Sales
Rising
Price
Rising
  • Ottawa
  • Saskatoon
  • Toronto
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • Windsor
  • Winnipeg
  • Fraser Valley
  • Montréal
  • Québec City
  • Moncton
  • Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Regina
  • Saint John
  • Sudbury
  • Trois-Rivières
Price
Falling
  • Halifax
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • St. Catharines
  • Thunder Bay
  • Kingston
  • Sherbrooke
  • Saguenay

Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth

(year-over-year)

7% +

Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Sherbrooke,
Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax, Newfoundland and Labrador

5–6.9%

—

3–4.9%

—

0–2.9%

—

Falling

—

Falling sales may reflect some buyers’ decision to wait for calmer markets, although falling listings also constrain the supply of available homes.

Resale Indicators for May 2021

Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market1 Market classification Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced market
range3		 Price ($)
Victoria Sellers’ 8,400 11,748     881,012
m/m %   -10.0 4.5 0.783 0.484–0.769 -2.9
y/y %   19.5 -6.6     13.8
Vancouver Balanced 39,480 65,508     1,191,350
    -11.5 -6.0 0.680 0.436–0.718 1.9
    61.8 13.3     14.2
Fraser Valley4 Sellers’ 21,276 29,784     974,112
    -28.6 -16.7 0.795 0.440–0.714 -1.4
    40.5 -0.4     26.4
Calgary Balanced 35,928 53,520     497,971
    -7.4 -3.3 0.668 0.463–0.726 -1.5
    73.5 29.5     10.7
Edmonton Balanced 27,696 47,280     399,633
    -6.3 5.9 0.598 0.451–0.710 -1.0
    38.0 21.6     11.6
Regina Balanced 4,512 7,188     325,079
    -5.3 2.9 0.628 0.490–0.752 -0.1
    4.2 5.8     5.8
Saskatoon Sellers’ 7,668 10,752     351,278
    -0.9 -11.4 0.717 0.425–0.679 -2.0
    16.8 -7.0     9.6
Winnipeg Balanced 15,120 19,824     353,493
    -6.2 -0.8 0.762 0.447–0.791 1.6
    6.1 -6.9     14.4
Thunder Bay Sellers’ 2,184 2,604     293,299
    -5.2 13.0 0.892 0.497–0.760 0.8
    -7.1 -6.9     18.0
Sudbury Sellers’ 2,832 3,792     391,734
    -17.2 0.6 0.770 0.342–0.674 -1.2
    -3.3 13.7     31.0
Toronto Balanced 106,620 166,908     1,060,932
    -9.1 -2.5 0.685 0.465–0.687 0.0
    34.7 9.0     17.3
Oshawa Sellers’ 12,888 15,600     894,439
    -12.0 -7.5 0.877 0.478–0.751 1.7
    17.5 -2.9     33.5
Hamilton Balanced 14,016 19,572     853,133
    -16.2 -2.8 0.774 0.434–0.799 3.8
    13.1 9.0     27.9
St. Catharines Sellers’ 4,044 5,580     707,851
    2.4 9.4 0.790 0.396–0.716 1.7
    25.3 10.2     19.6
Kitchener Sellers’ 9,852 12,864     750,964
    -9.3 -2.0 0.806 0.483–0.766 1.0
    9.6 3.1     26.3
Guelph Balanced 3,972 4,920     796,064
    0.3 13.3 0.828 0.507–0.837 -2.6
    17.4 18.8     22.6
London Sellers’ 10,896 14,688     635,053
    -5.4 4.5 0.763 0.417–0.712 1.1
    11.8 17.1     35.5
Windsor Balanced 7,752 11,712     529,003
    -2.4 5.4 0.672 0.437–0.687 -0.8
    11.2 30.7     36.6
Kingston Sellers’ 4,548 6,180     572,014
    0.5 -0.6 0.772 0.360–0.663 -2.7
    0.5 0.8     27.2
Ottawa Balanced 18,456 30,792     644,268
    -5.9 10.8 0.613 0.412–0.713 -0.2
    7.2 43.1     25.0
Gatineau Sellers’ 5,835 7,467     394,183
    3.8 3.3 0.815 0.442–0.744 3.9
    -14.8 -6.1     28.6
Montréal Sellers’ 53,670 77,241     546,572
    0.0 4.7 0.723 0.477–0.718 0.0
    -7.9 -14.1     24.6
Québec City Sellers’ 9,786 12,246     325,180
    5.1 -7.2 0.827 0.498–0.769 1.1
    -20.1 -17.2     15.7
Sherbrooke Sellers’ 2,287 3,005     371,422
    -2.9 -12.2 0.792 0.448–0.754 9.3
    -10.1 -9.9     29.6
Trois-Rivières Sellers’ 1,644 1,993     240,475
    14.8 24.5 0.831 0.475–0.799 2.0
    -19.7 1.4     27.7
Saguenay Sellers’ 1,362 1,383     235,071
    -8.3 -23.2 0.974 0.427–0.738 12.7
    -36.6 -46.9     17.0
Saint John Sellers’ 3,252 3,504     271,160
    -1.1 -2.3 0.938 0.355–0.638 6.8
    27.8 12.3     35.0
Moncton Sellers’ 4,248 4,884     275,653
    1.1 -5.8 0.877 0.382–0.665 -0.6
    7.9 14.3     29.7
Halifax Balanced 6,012 9,828     460,247
    -10.7 53.9 0.625 0.434–0.836 1.9
    -12.4 21.9     27.9
Newfoundland and Labrador Sellers’ 6,840 10,116     280,116
(province)   -3.2 -8.9 0.688 0.344–0.581 -0.2
    102.8 -4.5     25.6

1   For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2   Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3   Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4   Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.