Metropolitan Resale Snapshot
Homebuyers Welcome February Listings Hike
June 28, 2022
Key Findings
- National sales of existing homes fell nearly 9 per cent in May, the third straight monthly decline, and were down 25 per cent from May 2021. Even with the dip, transactions were near the 10-year average of seasonally adjusted monthly sales. Still, a 5 per cent listings rise slackened the national market and contributed to a 3.8 per cent drop in Canada’s average resale price, the third straight monthly decline. Sharply rising interest rates and nervous consumers are behind the market slowdown, which is mild—for now.
- Canadian sales declines were widespread, while listings were frequently higher. Sales fell in 22 of our 30 markets during May, with 16 areas suffering monthly declines exceeding 5 per cent and 27 areas seeing volumes below year-earlier levels. Listings rose from April in 24 jurisdictions and were above year-earlier volumes in 21 markets. Most markets slackened last month, with the sales-to-listing ratio down in 26 areas. We count 22 markets in balanced territory and seven areas still in a sellers’ state. Toronto is our only buyers’ market. Price growth is clearly slowing; only nine markets saw at least 20 per cent year-over-year price growth, far fewer than earlier this year.
- Sales fell in Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver during May but rose in Montréal. Vancouver and Calgary saw double-digit declines, while Toronto’s drop was about 9 per cent. Montréal transactions rose 2 per cent. Sales are historically mixed; Calgary’s sales remain well above their 10-year average, and Montréal’s were also high by this measure, but volumes in Toronto and Vancouver are significantly below it.
- May listings were up sharply in Montréal and fractionally in Vancouver. Calgary and Toronto saw drops. Montréal’s hike was 17 per cent. Calgary’s decline was near 7 per cent, while Toronto’s was 3 per cent. Montréal’s listings well exceeded year-earlier levels, but volumes in the other three cities were down. Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal are balanced markets, but Toronto faces buyers’ conditions.
- The average resale price fell more than 3 per cent in Toronto and 2.5 per cent in Calgary in May. Declines were between 1 per cent and 2 per cent in Vancouver and Montréal. Year-over-year price growth continues in all four cities but is slowing. Only Montréal enjoyed a double-digit gain. Vancouver and Toronto are falling just short of this mark, while Calgary’s advance was near 4 per cent.
Recent Market Performance
| Sales Falling |
Sales Rising |
|
|---|---|---|
| Price Rising |
|
|
| Price Falling |
|
|
Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth
(year-over-year)
7% +
Victoria, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Sudbury, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Gatineau, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax
5–6.9%
Fraser Valley, Thunder Bay, Toronto, Oshawa, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec
3–4.9%
Calgary, Edmonton, Newfoundland
0–2.9%
Regina
Falling
Saskatoon
National sales of existing homes fell nearly 9 per cent in May, the third straight monthly decline, and were down 25 per cent from May 2021.
Resale Indicators for May 2022
| Sales–to–new–listings ratio | ||||||||
| Market1 | Market classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) |
||
| Victoria | Balanced | 6,672 | 11,652 | 1,057,891 | ||||
| m/m % | –15.8 | 5.4 | 0.624 | 0.487–0.774 | –2.2 | |||
| y/y % | –29.6 | 8.2 | 16.2 | |||||
| Vancouver | Balanced | 29,328 | 57,468 | 1,276,282 | ||||
| –18.4 | 0.4 | 0.558 | 0.440–0.720 | –1.7 | ||||
| –35.4 | –16.7 | 9.0 | ||||||
| Fraser Valley 4 | Balanced | 13,956 | 29,004 | 1,051,846 | ||||
| –20.1 | 2.7 | 0.525 | 0.442–0.720 | –6.7 | ||||
| –55.7 | –16.9 | 6.0 | ||||||
| Calgary | Balanced | 36,924 | 49,212 | 526,241 | ||||
| –15.9 | –6.6 | 0.734 | 0.465–0.736 | –2.5 | ||||
| –4.6 | –9.0 | 3.9 | ||||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | 28,608 | 48,384 | 411,920 | ||||
| –7.2 | –0.1 | 0.621 | 0.452–0.730 | –2.1 | ||||
| –3.1 | 12.5 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Regina | Balanced | 4,752 | 6,972 | 329,988 | ||||
| 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.710 | 0.492–0.752 | 0.0 | ||||
| 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | ||||||
| Saskatoon | Sellers’ | 6,840 | 10,188 | 345,583 | ||||
| 2.5 | 9.3 | 0.704 | 0.427–0.681 | –1.7 | ||||
| –9.2 | –15.0 | –4.6 | ||||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | 14,112 | 20,832 | 401,333 | ||||
| –2.5 | 16.5 | 0.721 | 0.452–0.796 | 1.7 | ||||
| –14.0 | 3.6 | 16.2 | ||||||
| Thunder Bay | Balanced | 1,980 | 2,904 | 323,836 | ||||
| –7.8 | 41.5 | 0.714 | 0.500–0.769 | –7.7 | ||||
| –15.4 | 26.0 | 11.0 | ||||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | 3,180 | 4,272 | 480,650 | ||||
| 4.7 | 9.5 | 0.760 | 0.346–0.675 | –1.3 | ||||
| –15.3 | 0.3 | 21.8 | ||||||
| Toronto | Buyers’ | 74,484 | 161,748 | 1,176,368 | ||||
| –9.3 | –3.0 | 0.459 | 0.466–0.692 | –3.1 | ||||
| –41.4 | –2.1 | 9.7 | ||||||
| Oshawa | Balanced | 9,348 | 18,108 | 979,725 | ||||
| –9.9 | –5.4 | 0.515 | 0.481–0.755 | –7.1 | ||||
| –38.3 | 6.6 | 10.7 | ||||||
| Hamilton | Balanced | 10,884 | 22,128 | 979,736 | ||||
| –12.4 | 3.2 | 0.476 | 0.439–0.803 | –1.8 | ||||
| –36.4 | 12.0 | 17.3 | ||||||
| St. Catharines | Balanced | 2,664 | 5,892 | 859,789 | ||||
| –26.2 | –3.0 | 0.472 | 0.399–0.723 | 2.0 | ||||
| –34.3 | 16.1 | 22.4 | ||||||
| Kitchener | Balanced | 7,920 | 15,288 | 863,041 | ||||
| –6.5 | 0.9 | 0.536 | 0.486–0.771 | –5.0 | ||||
| –28.3 | 24.2 | 15.0 | ||||||
| Guelph | Balanced | 2,688 | 5,004 | 940,366 | ||||
| –14.2 | –12.0 | 0.539 | 0.510–0.840 | –8.1 | ||||
| –34.9 | 12.4 | 13.6 | ||||||
| London | Balanced | 8,004 | 16,560 | 748,290 | ||||
| –15.5 | 1.9 | 0.494 | 0.419–0.719 | 0.6 | ||||
| –33.4 | 21.3 | 18.9 | ||||||
| Windsor | Balanced | 6,396 | 13,860 | 623,501 | ||||
| –6.5 | 9.1 | 0.477 | 0.440–0.691 | –3.3 | ||||
| –19.6 | 30.2 | 15.3 | ||||||
| Kingston | Balanced | 3,228 | 6,576 | 685,951 | ||||
| –3.9 | 18.1 | 0.559 | 0.363–0.674 | 0.8 | ||||
| –28.5 | 10.0 | 13.5 | ||||||
| Ottawa | Balanced | 15,828 | 25,800 | 698,089 | ||||
| –11.1 | 0.2 | 0.623 | 0.416–0.719 | –0.9 | ||||
| –23.0 | –4.3 | 7.8 | ||||||
| Gatineau | Balanced | 4,891 | 7,622 | 476,357 | ||||
| –5.1 | 8.8 | 0.680 | 0.447–0.760 | –0.7 | ||||
| –16.6 | 7.8 | 23.2 | ||||||
| Montréal | Balanced | 50,031 | 80,052 | 609,834 | ||||
| 2.3 | 17.0 | 0.670 | 0.482–0.734 | –1.5 | ||||
| –8.9 | 10.0 | 11.6 | ||||||
| Québec City | Balanced | 9,511 | 13,633 | 352,885 | ||||
| 0.6 | 13.9 | 0.741 | 0.502–0.786 | –0.2 | ||||
| –1.4 | 5.3 | 9.7 | ||||||
| Sherbrooke | Balanced | 2,077 | 3,418 | 509,406 | ||||
| –4.0 | 31.5 | 0.715 | 0.450–0.779 | 24.2 | ||||
| –15.0 | 7.1 | 50.6 | ||||||
| Trois-Rivières | Sellers’ | 1,759 | 1,976 | 312,873 | ||||
| 41.2 | 6.1 | 0.902 | 0.478–0.819 | 7.8 | ||||
| 22.9 | 23.6 | 35.3 | ||||||
| Saguenay | Sellers’ | 1,415 | 1,729 | 269,242 | ||||
| 6.7 | 21.4 | 0.855 | ||||||
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.