Search

Gold Shines in Canada’s Trade Turnaround

Canadian Economics

By: David Ristovski

    

Canada’s merchandise exports increased 6.3 per cent (month-over-month) in September. Meanwhile, imports were down 4.1 per cent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade balance moved from a deficit of $6.4 billion in August to a surplus of $153 million in September.

  • Exports rose to $64.2 billion in September, the largest percentage increase since February 2024. Gains were recorded in 9 of 11 product categories. Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (+22.7 per cent) posted the largest increase, followed by exports of energy products (+5.8 per cent), as well as exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (+23.4 per cent). In volume terms, total exports were up 4.1 per cent in September.
  • Imports fell to $64.1 billion in September. Overall, declines were recorded in 7 of 11 product categories. The main contributors to the monthly drop were imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (–27.8 per cent), as well as imports of consumer goods (–6.0 per cent). Excluding metal and non-metallic mineral products, total imports were only down 1.5 per cent. In volume terms, total imports declined 3.3 per cent.
  • Canadian exports to the U.S. rose 4.6 per cent in September. Meanwhile, imports from the United States fell by 1.7 per cent. As a result, the merchandise trade surplus with the United States widened from $6.0 billion in August to $8.6 billion in September—the largest surplus since February 2025.

Key insights

Gold took centre stage in this month’s trade figures, propelling exports higher while driving imports down. Exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals rose 30.2 per cent in September, supported by higher unwrought gold exports to Switzerland, the United States, and the United Kingdom. In contrast, imports in this sub-category category fell 72.5 per cent, as the high-value gold purchases from South Africa and Switzerland recorded in August did not recur. Beyond gold, exports also rose in energy products, particularly crude oil, and transportation equipment such as aircraft. Furthermore, exports to countries other than the U.S. surged 11.0 per cent, reflecting a broader trend of Canada diversifying its trading partners.

Canada’s near-term trade prospects remain clouded. After a 12.7 per cent decline in the second quarter of this year, exports rebounded modestly by 2.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2025. Alongside the latest monthly improvement, this points to some resilience in navigating U.S. tariff pressures. Even so, risks persist amid shifting U.S. trade policy and a cooling American economy. President Trump’s recent signal of potentially increasing tariffs on Canadian fertilizer highlights the ongoing volatility. Any escalation in trade tensions could further weigh on Canada’s export performance and its competitiveness in attracting investment. While the federal government has introduced measures to bolster investment, the lack of a new trade agreement with the U.S. will continue to place pressure on the near-term economic outlook.

For a more detailed breakdown, check out our analysis on The True Cost of the Trump Tariffs.

Related Insights

See More Insights

Comments