Trade Surplus With the U.S. Narrows Significantly in October

Canada’s merchandise exports increased 2.1 per cent (month-over-month) in October 2025. Meanwhile, imports were up 3.4 per cent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade balance moved from a slight surplus of $243 million in September to a deficit of $583 million in October.

Key insights

Gold and other precious metals remained a key driver of trade activity. Exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals climbed 27.3 per cent in October, reaching a record high, led by a 47.4 per cent increase in unwrought gold and related alloys. Excluding unwrought gold, total exports fell 2.5 per cent. While weaker gold shipments weighed on exports to the U.S., they supported a 15.6 per cent increase in exports to other countries. Higher prices were a contributor to the overall monthly export gains. On the import side, unwrought platinum and silver bullion from the United States were behind the growth in October.

Near term trade pressures have not yet fully abated. Nominal exports rebounded modestly by 2.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, following a sharp 12.7 per cent contraction in the second quarter. While recent monthly gains suggest some resilience in the face of U.S. tariff pressures, export volumes declined this month. Moreover, recent strength has been largely driven by shipments of unwrought gold, masking underlying weakness in core trade activity. Excluding price effects and gold exports, the trade picture appears gloomy. Risks remain elevated amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and softening U.S. economic activity. President Trump has continued to signal potential tariff actions, several of which have not materialized, reinforcing policy unpredictability. Any prolongation or escalation of U.S. trade measures represents a key downside risk to our medium term economic outlook.

For more details about the impact of U.S. tariffs and our research on Canada’s place in a changing world, please read more here.