This quarterly economic forecast for the province of British Columbia examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
British Columbia’s Recovery Loses Steam, but Major Projects Boost Growth: British Columbia’s Two-Year Outlook—December 2020
British Columbia’s Recovery Loses Steam, but Major Projects Boost Growth: British Columbia’s Two-Year Outlook—December 2020
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- As new cases of COVID-19 have surged in British Columbia in recent months, reinstated public health measures have tapped the brakes of the province’s economic recovery.
- B.C.’s real GDP is forecast to decline by 6.1 per cent this year and then grow by 4.9 per cent in 2021.
- Despite an initial bounce-back, B.C.’s labour market recovery has slowed. There are pronounced differences among the sectors. Manufacturing has fully recovered to its pre-pandemic level, while employment in construction is expected to recover by the latter half of 2021.
- The provincial New Democratic Party secured a majority government in an October election and released the StrongerBC economic recovery plan. The stimulus plan includes $1.5 billion in spending measures and $660 million in tax measures, with approximately $50 million earmarked for a Tourism Task Force to revitalize that ailing sector. This spending will contribute to the anticipated $12.8-billion provincial deficit for 2020–21.
- Investment in major infrastructure projects is positioning B.C. to ramp up its economic recovery in 2021 and 2022.
- China’s strong comeback in the latter half of this year is good news for B.C. exporters, though real exports are expected to remain below their pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2021.
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