Canada’s Five-Year Government Outlook—April 2025

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Canada’s Five-Year Government Outlook—April 2025

Canadian Economic Analysis
10 min read

Author: Richard Forbes

$225.00

This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on government. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

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New Priorities

Public spending surged in 2024, particularly in the areas of healthcare, education, and public administration. In the face of elevated debt levels for most provinces, as well as a narrowing tax base due to baby boomers retiring and reduction in immigration targets, federal and provincial governments will tackle cuts in public administration as a way to rein in spending.

Based on our assumption that the trade dispute will last one quarter and given planned stimulus measures, what areas of spending will provincial governments focus on over the next five years to tackle their deficits? What will the focus be for the federal government given the pressure to increase Canada’s defence spending to meet NATO’s 2.0 per cent target? How will municipalities fare during the trade dispute?

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