Buckle Up, Major Trade Turbulence Ahead
A rough ride is in store for merchandise exporters as the trade war escalates. U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory countermeasures to them will dominate the international trade outlook in the immediate term. However, continued uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s unpredictable trade agenda will be a downside risk to the outlook until 2029.
Will the Canadian dollar remain low, under US$.071, for the entire five years of the international forecast? What is the expected damage to some export segments, particularly in manufacturing? How much are Canada’s export of goods and services forecast to contract this year before the expected rebounding in 2026? As the negative import of the trade war ripples through all facets of the Canadian economy, will this lead to softer domestic demand this year? And will the current account balance remain in deficit throughout this five-year forecast?
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