Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2008

• Turmoil in residential markets will hinder U.S. consumer spending until the second half of 2009. Still, real U.S. GDP growth will advance by 2 per cent this year before slipping to 1.7 per cent growth in 2009.
• Despite the massive banking sector bailout by thye U.S. Treasury, the U.S. financial crisis adds downside risk to the forecast. U.S. households and businesses could retrench further and for longer than we have assumed in this outlook.
• Canadian auto exports are being hit hard. A real decline of 19 per cent is expected this year, in line with a steep drop-off in U.S. vehicle sales.
• While there is still momentum in Canada’s domestic economy, our near-term economic outlook has been revised down. Real GDP growth of only 0.8 per cent is forecast for 2008, followed by a modest 2.2 per cent gain in 2009.
• Job growth has waned recently—and not just in manufacturing. This, combined with lacklustre confidence, will take a bite out of the recent heated pace of consumer spending growth.
• Volatile commodity prices and waning confidence are holding back business investment decisions. Despite having fallen off from their summer peak, commodity prices will still post a 20 per cent gain for 2008.

Highlighting Our New Webcast Service – Economic Insights from the Chief
A series of four live 40 minute economic webcasts with opportunity for Q&A of Glen Hodgson, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist of Signal49 Research. He will provide highlights from our Canadian economic forecast, the U.S. and world outlook, as well as hot issues from the provincial economies. The webcasts will be timed to coincide with the release of our Canadian Outlook publications, giving you expert interpretation of the national forecast for the next two years, including all the key indicators.

Subscribe today for $995/year. This gives you and two colleagues access to the webcasts and any additional materials released during the presentations. An archived recording of the webcast will also be available as part of the subscription. Additional seats are $100 ea. The regular price for this is $2,250 for the series of four webcasts. The first webcast will be held at 2:00 ET on October 22, 2008.

For more information or to subscribe to this new service, please contact Cindy Pelletier at (613) 526-3090, ext. 380 or email [email protected]