This quarterly economic forecast examines the short-term economic outlook for Canada – all major components including consumer expenditures, housing, government, non-energy business investment, and trade. The outlook for the financial, labour, and energy markets is also given along with costs and prices. The U.S. economic outlook is presented in a separate section.
Document Highlights
A quick U.S.victory in the Iraqi war is forecast to result in a resurgence in U.S.household and investor confidence,leading to a solid recovery in the U.S.economy beginning in the second half of 2003.
A relatively sluggish U.S.economy early in 2003 and a higher Canadian dollar will hurt Canadian export growth this year,but a U.S.rebound in 2004 will finally fuel a solid export recovery next year.
The prospect of near-term inflationary pressures will lead the Bank of Canada to begin a steady string of interest rates hikes beginning in the fourth quarter of 2003.
The economy will get a solid boost from strong growth in federal spending this year.
The Canadian economy is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent this year and by 3.3 per cent in 2004.
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