Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2004

This quarterly economic forecast examines the short-term economic outlook for Canada – all major components including consumer expenditures, housing, government, non-energy business investment, and trade. The outlook for the financial, labour, and energy markets is also given along with costs and prices. The U.S. economic outlook is presented in a separate section.

Document Highlights

• Canadian real GDP will grow by 2.8 per cent in 2004 and by 3.1 per cent in 2005.
• The U.S. economy is forecast to expand by an explosive 4.3 per cent this year before settling back to 2.7 per cent growth in 2005.
• Interest rates will be cut by a total of 75 basis points early this year.
• The Canadian dollar is forecast to average $0.743 U.S. this year and to continue sliding gently to $0.721 U.S. in 2005.