Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2003

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook that presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

The Canadian economy is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent this year and by 3.2 per cent in 2004.

Hurt by a rapid rise in the dollar and sluggish U.S. growth, exports are projected to contract by 1.9 per cent this year.

The Bank of Canada is expected to lower interest rates later this year in an effort to shore up economic growth.

A sharp reduction in inventory accumulation will occur during the second quarter of this year, but the impact on GDP growth will be largely offset by lower imports.

Strong growth in public spending will give the economy a significant boost this year.