This annual economic forecast presents the long-term national outlook. The U.S. economic outlook is presented in a separate section.
Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2014
Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2014
Canadian Economic Analysis
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- Key to a better economic performance globally is an expected solid improvement in real GDP growth in the United States.
- This will improve Canada’s trade performance and help lift real GDP growth to 2.4 per cent per year from 2014 to 2016, a solid improvement over the past two years.
- Beyond 2016, economic growth will be restrained by the exodus of baby boomers from the labour market, a dominant trend that will continue until 2030.
- Fiscal restraint here in Canada will continue at the provincial level. There is upside risk from federal stimulus, as the federal government should return to surplus in 2015–16.
- Monetary tightening is on hold for now, but rising rates will put pressure on heavily indebted Canadian households and governments.
- Strong immigration will not reverse Canada’s aging trend, but it will help keep total population growth relatively stable. By 2035, Canada’s population will reach 43.8 million, up from just over 35 million today.
- Strong growth in emerging markets will keep commodity prices elevated, providing trading opportunities for Canadian firms.
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