This alternate scenario to our Spring 2020 Canadian Economic Outlook forecast includes the possible impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the oil price war, on the Canadian economy.
Economic Implications of Social Distancing: Alternate Canadian Outlook Scenario
Economic Implications of Social Distancing: Alternate Canadian Outlook Scenario
Canadian Economic Analysis
Pages:12 pages15 min read
$0.00
- In this alternate scenario, we assume that the travel bans and social distancing measures now in effect continue until the end of August in both Canada and the United States.
- The result is a much deeper and longer-lasting hit to economic activity in Canada. Instead of growing 0.3 per cent as in our baseline forecast, real GDP is now forecast to contract by 1.1 per cent in 2020.
- In this scenario, the economy sheds over 330,000 jobs over the second and third quarters of 2020, boosting the unemployment rate to 7.7 per cent.
- With the COVID-19 pandemic contained by this coming September, a rebound in household spending is forecast to occur in the fourth quarter and into next year.
- Pent-up demand will help economic activity rebound, with real GDP growth of 3.3 per cent forecast in 2021.
Customers Who Downloaded This Also Liked
10 min read
14 min read
10 min read
10 min read
Require an accessible version of this research?
Upon request, Signal49 Research offers accessible versions of research. Please contact us to request your accessible version.
Learn more about our accessibility policies.
Effective January 26, 2026, AERIC Inc./Signal49 Research discontinued use of ‘The Conference Board of Canada’ name, logo and branding, which had been used by AERIC Inc./Signal49 Research under license from The Conference Board, Inc. The Conference Board, Inc. and its licensees, which are not affiliated with Signal49 Research, own all right, title and interest in THE CONFERENCE BOARD name and trademarks in Canada and have the exclusive right to their use in Canada since January 26, 2026.
