Four Futures: the Economic Impact of Immigration in Ottawa–Gatineau

Canada’s aging population means more workers are exiting the labour force and fewer younger workers are entering the job market, limiting the economy’s ability to grow. Immigrants to Canada help the economy by filling these voids. By working and paying taxes, immigrants also support to the country’s social safety net and health care system.
This impact paper assesses the demographic and economic impacts of immigration to Ottawa–Gatineau over the past decade and forecasts the impacts of four different immigration scenarios:

• a benchmark scenario, where immigration levels remain how they are today;
• a zero-immigration scenario, where we assume no new permanent residents arrive;
• a high-immigration scenario, where we assume immigration levels rise;
• a high-immigration scenario with improved labour outcomes, where immigration levels rise as under the high-immigration scenario, but we assume wages and employment rates also rise.