Industrial Relations Outlook 2013: Embracing the “New Normal”

The latest edition of Signal49 Research’s Industrial Relations Outlook starts from the notion of the “new normal,” an economic era characterized by slow growth, low interest rates and inflation, and unabated global demand for commodities. What does this mean for collective bargaining in the coming year? There is a sense that both employers and unions are coming to terms with the “new normal” and will bring more realistic expectations to the bargaining table. In the public sector, governments of all political stripes will continue to focus on balancing budgets and curtailing debt. We should expect ongoing restraint in public spending, with consequent impacts on public sector jobs and compensation. In the private sector, there will be strong job and compensation growth in sectors where business investment is growing, notably in the commodities sector. In contrast, employment and compensation will lag in manufacturing, where industries such as the auto sector are contracting. Going forward, bargaining outcomes in manufacturing will likely mirror those in the auto industry, with reduced wages and increasing use of two-tier wage structures.