Ontario’s Five-Year Outlook—September 2026

Ontario’s Five-Year Outlook—September 2026

Provincial Economic Analysis
18 min read

Author: Christopher Heschl

$705.00

This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, and labour market conditions.

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Ontario Navigates Trade Turbulence

Ontario’s economy is projected to grow by just 0.2 per cent in 2026 after a gain of 1.3 per cent in 2025 as global economic uncertainty tempers growth prospects.

Is the outlook expected to improve starting in 2027? What is a key downside risk to the outlook? Will consumer spending continue to be reserved? What is the outlook for labour force growth and job gains? What is expected for residential and non-residential investment, including the electric vehicle industry? And will the Ontario government be in a position to balance the budget over the next few years?

Read the online experience for a closer look at Ontario’s picture from now until 2030.

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