This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Alberta—Winter 2017
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Alberta—Winter 2017
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Lower world oil production will support price appreciation through the medium term, with prices rising to US$70 per barrel over the next five years. However, the landscape of global oil prices will be determined by the degree of compliance of signatories to the 2016 Vienna oil-production cut-back agreement.
- Non-residential business investment fell by $30.4 billion between 2014 and 2016 in Alberta, with 95 per cent of the losses concentrated in the energy sector.
- Energy investment will begin its recovery in 2018, but a lack of greenfield investment in the oil sands will mean that the bulk of the recovery will be sourced from pipelines, electricity infrastructure, and storage facilities.
- Despite higher unemployment, household spending will accelerate as housing reconstruction in Fort McMurray begins.
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