This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2007
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2007
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Newfoundland and Labrador’s economic growth will stumble in the near term as the offshore oil industry reaches peak production capacity this year. Real GDP growth will falter to only 1.5 per cent in 2008.
- New large capital projects in the resource sector will stimulate New Brunswick and Nova Scotia over the next few years. Prince Edward Island will experience stable GDP growth in 2008.
- Alberta is forecast to advance by a slower but still solid 3.4 per cent in 2007 and by 3.6 per cent in 2008. A considerable jump in non-conventional oil output is projected next year, compensating for depressed drilling activity.
- The outlook in British Columbia is bright with the exception of the forestry and manufacturing sectors which are suffering from the collapse in the U.S. housing market.
- While Saskatchewan is experiencing a boom, more temperate economic growth is expected in 2008 as the positive interprovincial migration gradually subsides. In Manitoba, large multi-year capital projects, a favourable manufacturing outlook, and a vibrant domestic economy will drive strong GDP growth in 2007 and 2008.
- Softening economic growth in the United States, the flight of the loonie, and elevated commodity prices will prevent a full recovery in Central Canada until 2009.
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