Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2002

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

Highlights of this issue include:

• Impressive growth in oil production from both Terra Nova and Hibernia will help propel Newfoundland and Labrador’s overall real gross domestic product (GDP) to 8.7 per cent growth in 2002, easily surpassing the pace of any other province.
• The agriculture sector is projected to rebound strongly in Prince Edward Island in 2002, following last year’s catastrophic drought. A comeback in the agriculture sector is the main reason why the province will post a strong 4.5 per cent performance this year.
• The Nova Scotia economy is in a good shape. Broadly based gains will push real GDP up by 3.2 per cent in 2002.
• New Brunswick’s economy is expected to perform much better this year than it did in 2001. Strong gains in employment and retail sales in the first half of this year and a rebound in the manufacturing sector will push real GDP growth to 2.7 per cent in 2002.
• The province of Quebec has benefited from impressive results in many sectors since the start of the year. With a red-hot housing market, numerous non-residential construction projects and a recovering manufacturing sector, real GDP at market prices should grow by a strong 3.9 per cent in 2002.
• The year is shaping up to be a good one for the Ontario economy. Employment has been steadily rising in the last six months and the manufacturing sector is recuperating strongly. With the help of this excellent start, real GDP at market prices is expected to reach 3.6 per cent this year.
• A rebound in the agriculture sector will push real GDP in Manitoba up by 3.5 per cent this year, just a tad lower than the national average.
• In the face of drought conditions, the Saskatchewan economy has shown remarkable resilience so far this year. Real GDP is projected to grow by 3 per cent in 2002.
• The Alberta economy will fare rather well this year as real GDP advances by 3.3 per cent.
• Real GDP in the province of British Columbia is expected to expand by 2.4 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent in 2003.