Survey of Forecasters: Winter 2002

This quarterly survey reflects the opinions of Canada’s top forecasting organizations and their outlook for the Canadian economy.

Document Highlights 

The Canadian economy lost almost 18,000 jobs in December, continuing the weakness that has afflicted labour markets over the past few months. Panelists may feel that Canada’s rising unemployment rate could put a damper on consumer spending, at least in the first half of this year.

• Panelists were more pessimistic about economic growth for 2002. Real GDP growth of 1.2 per cent is anticipated this year, down from the 1.7 per cent growth anticipated in the fall survey.
• The weaker economic growth expected in the United States this year led forecasters to be more pessimistic about Canada’s export performance.
• Forecasters expect the Canadian economy to expand by 3.9 per cent in 2003.