U.S.’s Five-Year Outlook—March 2026

Cool-down Before the Warmup

Given the level of uncertainty surrounding global trade policy, our forecast presents a scenario operating under the assumption of a 15.0 per cent effective tariff rate in the U.S. until the end of 2026. However, tariff developments can change quickly. At a minimum, this forecast represents a scenario of the currently projected trade battle the U.S. will face. Naturally, a longer trade war would be worse for the U.S., while no tariffs would be better.

What factors would downgrade our outlook? How are trade and immigration policies affecting the labour market? What are the impacts of the Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act on GDP growth and the federal deficit?

Read the online experience to get our full analysis.