Provincial Forecast
Get the latest Canadian economic forecasts to fully understand Canada’s provincial economic stance.
Canadian 5-Year Outlook
Canadian Economics March 5, 2026
With 2025 in the rear-view mirror, 2026 looks to be another year full of economic uncertainty. The principal turning point will come later in the year, when U.S. mid-term elections and the renegotiation of the CUSMA free trade agreement will decide the medium-term fate of Canada’s economy. If the resolution to the trade dispute is orderly, that would boost Canada’s prospects, while if trade factors worsen, economic prospects will also worsen. Regardless, our forecast for 2026 and beyond hinges on the direction of U.S. policy, much like it did in 2025.
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Provincial Five-Year Outlook—March 2026
Hoping for Stability This quarter, we look at the effects of stalled population growth and ongoing trade uncertainty on provincial economies across the country. How much will federal efforts to…
Canada’s 20-Year Outlook—December 2025
Steering Through Transition In this semi-annual report, we assess how Canada’s economy will navigate a tide of structural transitions over the next two decades. In what ways could the evolving…
Index of Consumer Confidence for February 2026
A Gentle Lift in Consumer Mood Against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty, the economy has held up relatively well. Despite business investment softening and trade-sensitive sectors, especially manufacturing, facing clear…
Index of Consumer Spending for December 2025
Stronger November Spending Softens December’s Index of Consumer Spending In this research, we examine consumer spending across all provinces and territories between November and December 2025. Among the provinces, the…
Canadian Hiring Index for February 2026
Softer Hiring Activity Extends Into January The labour market has entered 2026 on shaky footing. Hiring activity in Canada eased in January, with the hiring index falling by 6.8 points….
Canada’s Travel Markets Outlook—December 2025
Resilience at Home, Renewal Abroad In this semi-annual report, we assess the outlook for Canada’s tourism industry, examining the flows and spending of leisure and business travellers within Canada, from…
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Provincial Innovation Dashboard—September 2025
Provincial Innovation Dashboard In this research, we examine provincial innovation performance and trends across Canada, including a high-level look at innovation capacity, activity, and results. Which provinces are leading and…
Provincial Fiscal Outlook—July 2025
Deficits to Gradually Narrow Provincial governments across Canada are facing fiscal challenges. Most are struggling to balance their books amid spending pressures, as pandemic-related interest costs linger, and a rising…
Provincial 20-Year Outlook—March 2025
This year, we assess the effects of changing demographics, geopolitics, and technological advances on provincial workforces, living standards, housing markets, and healthcare through to 2045. What will new lower international…
Positive Job Print Ends Rollercoaster Week
In January, employment in Canada increased by 76,000, the third consecutive monthly increase. There were notable gains among youth aged 15 to 24 years. The labour force increased by 62,000…
December Delivers: Risks Loom, but Jobs Stay Strong
In December, employment in Canada increased by 91,000. The employment rate rose by 0.2 per cent, the first increase since January 2023. Job growth was broad-based with gains recorded in…
Unemployment Rate Rises as Job Seekers Left Out in the Cold
In November, employment increased by 51,000 in Canada. Job growth was concentrated in full- time work and the public sector. The labour force participation rate rose 0.3 per centage points…
Meet Our Expert
Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist
Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at Signal49 Research. He provides insights and general direction for Signal49 Research’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors.
Jaded in July: Labour Force Contracts and Jobs Flatline
In July, employment in Canada was little changed on the previous month, marking a third consecutive month of stagnant job growth. The size of the labour force fell by 11,000,…
Summer Sunshine Fails to Reach the Labour Market in May
In May, employment in Canada inched up by 27,000. Meanwhile, the labour force grew by 50,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2 per cent. Total employment across goods-producing…
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Stuck in a Holding Pattern? Canada’s Travel Markets Outlook to 2028
In this biannual report, we explore how the tourism sector will fare against the incomplete recovery of international visitors and a financially strained domestic market. Given higher prices and borrowing…
April Showers Didn’t Dampen the Labour Market
In April, employment in Canada rose by 0.4 per cent following little change in March. Meanwhile, on the back of continued robust population gains, the labour force expanded by 0.5…
Chill Lingers in the Labour Market as Winter Recedes
In March, total employment in economy was little changed on the previous month. Further growth in the labour force drove the unemployment rate up to 6.1 per cent. Young workers…
Launching Canada’s Space Sector: Economic Impact of Spaceport Nova Scotia
In this research, we examine the projected impacts, both locally and nationally, on sectors such as construction, transportation, tourism, and professional, scientific, and technical services to be generated through the…
