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Gold and Crude Oil Behind the Export Jump in March

Canadian Economics

By: David Ristovski

    

Canada’s merchandise exports rose 8.5 per cent (month-over-month) in March. Meanwhile, imports were down 1.6 per cent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade balance shifted from a deficit of $5.1 billion in February to a surplus of $1.8 billion in March.

  • Exports jumped to $72.8 billion in March. Gains were recorded in 7 of 11 product categories. Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products rose 24 per cent, on the back of higher gold exports to the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, exports of energy products rose 15.6 per cent to $17.1 billion, the highest level since September 2022. Prices also heavily influenced the increase in March—in volume terms, total exports fell 0.3 per cent.
  • Imports fell to $70.9 billion in March, with decreases recorded in 8 of 11 product categories. The main contributors to the monthly decline were imports of consumer goods (–3.9 per cent), and imports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (–12.8 per cent). In volume terms, total imports fell 2.0 per cent.
  • Canadian exports to the U.S. fell 8.3 per cent in March. Meanwhile, imports from the United States decreased 1.2 per cent. As a result, the merchandise trade surplus with the United States widened from $2.9 billion in February to $7.1 billion in March.

Key Insights

Canada’s monthly nominal trade balance shifted to a surplus for the first time since September 2025. Metal and non-metallic mineral products, along with energy products, were the primary drivers of the strong export growth in March. Exports of unwrought gold surged to a record $15.3 billion. At the same time, crude oil exports rose by 18.9 per cent, supported by a sharp increase in global oil prices. This price escalation was largely attributed to heightened uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Iran. Excluding these two categories, nominal exports posted a more moderate gain of 1.1 per cent.

Exports to countries other than the U.S. reached a record high in March. The federal government is pursuing a strategy to reduce Canada’s reliance on U.S. markets. Prime Minister Mark Carney has set a target of doubling exports to non-U.S. destinations by 2035. In March 2026, exports to these markets rose by 9.1 per cent, reaching a record $24.3 billion. At the same time, Canada’s trade deficit with non-U.S. partners narrowed to $5.3 billion, its lowest level since January 2021. Recent policy measures, including a trade agreement with China that lowered bilateral tariffs, are expected to support progress toward this objective.

Uncertain times ahead for Canadian trade. Recent increases in nominal exports have been largely driven by unwrought gold shipments and price effects, which obscure softer underlying performance in core trade flows. When these factors are excluded, the trade outlook appears more subdued. Furthermore, in the first quarter of 2026, the nominal trade deficit widened to $6.5 billion. In real terms, exports declined by 0.6 per cent, while imports increased by 3.3 per cent over the same period. Downside risks remain elevated, reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the conflict in Iran.

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