Challenges Ahead on the Trade Front
The trade conflict with the United States will be a major drag on Canada’s merchandise export sector in the short term but after 2026, we assume trade relations will normalize and allow export growth prospects to improve. With exports outpacing imports for much of the 20-year outlook, Canada’s trade sector will be a modest contributor to growth through 2045.
Based on our assumption that the trade dispute will end after 2026, what challenges on both the residential and non-residential fronts will result in the construction sector being a moderate performer for most of the forecast? How will modest demand and demographic trends impact the outlook for many service industries through 2045? What is the impact of demographic trends such as an aging population on industries and federal and provincial government spending?
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