Sluggish Performance in 2025Q3
Our latest GDP nowcast suggests the Canadian economy narrowly avoided a technical recession, with third-quarter GDP growth remaining flat. Nonetheless, underlying conditions remain recessionary.
What does our nowcast model estimate for the Canadian economy in the third quarter of 2025? How much did GDP by industry fall in August? What was the output in the goods-producing industries, and which sector had the poorest result? What drove the declines in the wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing sectors? Did retail sales increase or decrease in August? What contributed the most to the monthly decline in total manufacturing sales? The least? What was the picture for imports and exports? And what was the situation for employment, unemployment, and job security?
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