Prospects Remain Mixed for Trade: Canada’s Two-Year International Trade Outlook

Document Highlights

Over the short term, Canada’s merchandise export performance will be diminished by slower U.S. demand and the ongoing global supply chain crisis.

Slowing consumer spending and business investment will take some steam out of merchandise import activity.

With imports outperforming exports this year, the trade sector will be a drag on real GDP growth for the second year in a row.

The lifting of most public-health and travel restrictions will fire up non-merchandise trade.

Solid gains in the terms of trade will lift Canada’s current account to new heights in 2022.