Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2002

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights 

The Canadian economy was significantly affected by the U.S. slowdown in 2001 and will weather the winter months before it comes to life again in the spring of 2002. Data now reveal the extent to which the Canadian economy was broadsided by the tragic events of last September, as the first quarterly contraction since early 1992 occurred in the third quarter of 2001.

Highlights of this issue are:

• Offshore oil projects will keep Newfoundland on top of the leader board for real GDP growth in both 2002 and 2003.
• Sharp declines in oil and gas prices are having unfortunate consequences for the Alberta economy.
• As the U.S. economy recovers, so will that of central Canada.
• British Columbia will post the weakest average growth over the next two years.
• Manitoba’s well-diversified economy hangs on.