This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2010
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2010
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- This long-term outlook extends to the year 2030, by which time almost all the baby boomers will have exited the labour market. A consistent slowing in labour force growth means that Canada’s economic growth will ease steadily over the forecast period, slowing to an annual pace of less than 2 per cent in the final years.
- Ontario and Alberta will occupy the two top spots over the long term. Alberta is still feeling the effects of the global recession and will recover slowly. Ontario is benefiting from the revival in auto manufacturing and will be one of the strongest provinces in the near term. The long-term prospects for the Alberta and Ontario are very favourable due to strong immigration.
- Over the long term, real GDP growth will average 1.9 per cent in British Columbia and 1.6 per cent in Prince Edward Island, as the two provinces become preferred retirement havens for baby boomers.
- A declining population and the depletion of oil reserves will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador over the next two decades.
- Energy megaprojects will boost the New Brunswick economy over the next decade. However, the province’s population will start to decline in 2019. By 2021, Nova Scotia will also see its population begin to shrink.
- Quebec’s long-term prospects are dampened by an older population and a shrinking working-age population. The aging of the population will be felt much sooner in Quebec than elsewhere.
- More favourable immigration will help population growth remain steady in Manitoba over the forecast period. Saskatchewan will also benefit from immigration.
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