Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: New Brunswick—2020

Please note that this forecast was prepared before COVID 19 dramatically changed the near term economic outlook.

• Real GDP will advance at an annual average pace of 1.0 per cent between 2019 and 2040.
• The decline in the population will weigh down potential output growth and impact all areas of the economy. Potential future increases in international immigration targets provide upside potential for population growth.
• Consumer spending preferences will shift away from goods and housing in favour of services.
• Our outlook for business investment in the coming decade, while a marked improvement compared with the previous decade, is modest. Aside from upgrades to the Mactaquac Dam, no major projects have been confirmed.
• Faced with revenue shortfalls and increased spending on health care, the provincial government is expected to limit spending in many other areas over the long term.