This annual economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
Document Highlights
Ontario’s economic outlook remains positive in the long term, as the province is anticipated to post average annual gains in real GDP of 1.9 per cent between now and 2040.
Immigration will become the sole source of population growth as of 2032 when the province’s natural rate of population increase is expected to tilt into the negative.
Ontario will continue to face tightening labour market conditions as a growing segment of the population enters retirement age. This will push Ontario businesses to ramp up their investment in machinery and equipment.
Solid growth in the U.S. and a favourable exchange rate will sustain growth in international trade. Ontario’s financial and tech sectors will continue to see rapid growth, which will support the province’s services exports.
An aging population drives higher public spending on health care while also narrowing the government’s available tax base. This will constrain the Ontario government’s coffers over the long term and make it difficult to rein in the province’s ballooning debt.
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