Weaker global demand, particularly from the United States, coupled with ongoing global supply chain issues, will weigh heavily on merchandise export prospects over the short term.
A retrenchment in consumer spending due to high inflation and rising interest rates will dampen merchandise import activity over the next two years.
After being a huge drag on overall economic activity in 2022, the trade sector will no longer be a drag on real GDP growth starting in 2023.
Following the lifting of most public health restrictions in 2022, non-merchandise trade turned a corner and will be a pillar of strength moving forward.
Despite a steady deterioration in the terms of trade over the next couple of years, the current account is forecast to remain in surplus throughout the forecast.
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