Waiting for the Global Recovery: Canada’s Two-Year International Trade Outlook

This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on international trade. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

• The resurgence in COVID-19 outbreaks in late 2020 and early 2021 will be a drag on economic growth in many countries and take some of the steam out of Canada’s export recovery during the first half of this year.
• Canada’s import sector is also feeling the pain as the domestic economy wrestles with softer domestic consumer spending and business investment.
• The non-merchandise trade sector has been hit hard and will continue to expand at a snail’s pace as governments maintain tight travel and border restrictions in an effort to contain the pandemic.
• The current account balance will see some improvement over the next two years but will remain in deficit throughout the forecast.