Canada’s Five-Year Government Outlook—March 2026

In the Red

Governments across Canada face an uncertain 2026, as risks encountered last year have carried over and represent continued challenges. Key among these is the relationship with the United States and the current trade environment. The impacts of these factors will ultimately weigh on government revenues and steepen deficits for both federal and provincial governments over the short term.

What does the federal government see as a spending priority, and how will this affect overall finances over the medium term? What elements will weigh most on revenue growth across the federal and provincial governments, and where will their efforts to reduce spending be concentrated? Where will provincial governments direct their spending over the next five years, and will it put them further into deficit?

Read the online experience for the full analysis.