Canada’s Five-Year Government Outlook—October 2025

Canada’s Five-Year Government Outlook—October 2025

Canadian Economic Analysis
10 min read

Author: Richard Forbes

$225.00

This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on government. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

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Ambitious Policy to Strain Government Finances

The federal government has introduced measures to support the economy in both the short term and long term, but they will ultimately worsen the fiscal deficit? Federal defence spending is assumed to rise from 2.0 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal year to 3.2 per cent by 2030, with a target of 5.0 per cent by 2035.

Will the planning for worst-case trade war scenarios keep new provincial program spending growth modest in 2025? What are the dual demographic factors that weigh on both federal and provincial government finances? What have federal and provincial governments identified as one of the few options to reduce spending? And will revenue growth across all government levels, beginning in 2027, help to narrow deficits?

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