Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2004

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces

Document Highlights

• Canadian real GDP will grow by 2.8 per cent in 2004 and 3.1 per cent in 2005.
• Ontario’s performance will be restrained by the elevated dollar this year, but growth will be tops in the land in 2005.
• Sizzling construction activity will bolster Quebec in 2004.
• A large decline in construction, dismal government spending and modest prospects for petroleum production will restrain economic growth in Atlantic Canada to a meagre 1.8 per cent in 2005 and 1.5 per cent in 2005.
• In spite of tight provincial fiscal policy, improved manufacturing and robust construction activity will boost real GDP growth in British Columbia to 2.6 per cent in 2004 and 2.9 per cent in 2005.
• Alberta will lead all other provinces in 2004 and will rank second in 2005, driven by the roaring expansion of the oilsands and healthy domestic demand.
• Manitoba is projected to experience average growth of 2.7 per cent over the near term, while Saskatchewan faces a more moderate 2.2 per cent gain.