Canada’s 20-Year Economic Outlook Update—August 2026

Canada’s 20-Year Economic Outlook Update—August 2026

Canadian Economic Analysis
20 min read

Author: David Ristovski, Doris Chu, Jake Lenarduzzi, Kiefer Van Mulligen, Meghan Eibner, Richard Forbes, Robin Wiebe

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This report presents a mid-year update of our long-term national economic outlook.

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Against the Tide

In this semi-annual report, we examine how lower population growth and an aging population will reduce labour force growth and place increasing pressure on the Canadian economy’s productive capacity over the next two decades.

Against these demographic headwinds, where will AI drive investment and productivity gains? To what extend will those gains, together with Canadian governments’ renewed focus on getting things built and encouraging private sector investment, help to offset the pressure on Canada’s productive capacity?

We share our outlook for Canada’s economy over the next two decades, including GDP growth, demographics, and international trade.

Read the online experience to get our full analysis.

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